今年最后一个小长假，机票还会跳水吗

Core Insights - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see a significant increase in domestic and international flight bookings, with domestic bookings exceeding 3.26 million and international bookings surpassing 1.16 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 26% and approximately 15% respectively [2] - Despite the increase in bookings, the average price of domestic flights during the National Day period remains stable compared to last year [3] - There is a notable trend of flight prices dropping significantly before holidays, a phenomenon observed during previous holidays such as the Spring Festival and Labor Day [4][5] Domestic Flight Market - The search volume for domestic flights during the upcoming holidays has increased by over 30% compared to last year, with popular destinations including Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [4] - The pricing pattern for domestic flights shows higher prices at the beginning and end of the holiday, with lower prices in the middle, indicating a "high-low" pricing strategy [4] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has been monitoring flight prices to prevent excessive price drops and maintain market order, especially during peak travel times [6] International Flight Market - International flight prices have seen dramatic reductions, with some routes offering tickets for as low as 19 yuan excluding taxes, making them cheaper than domestic flights [7][8] - The most popular international destinations for the upcoming holiday include Seoul, Bangkok, and Tokyo, with a significant increase in search interest for these locations [9] - The international aviation market is still recovering, particularly for long-haul routes, with flight availability on routes like China-US remaining below 30% of pre-pandemic levels [12] Future Market Trends - The demand for air travel is showing distinct seasonal characteristics, with a notable increase in outbound travel from lower-tier cities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12] - Experts suggest that the recovery of the aviation market will not simply replicate pre-pandemic conditions but will face structural changes, emphasizing the need for efficiency and demand-driven strategies [13]