今年最后一个小长假，机票还会跳水吗？

Core Insights - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see a significant increase in domestic and international flight bookings, with domestic ticket reservations exceeding 3.26 million and international bookings surpassing 1.16 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 26% and approximately 15% respectively [1][2] - Domestic flight prices during the National Day period are generally stable compared to last year, with a notable price pattern of higher fares at the beginning and end of the holiday, and lower prices in the middle [2][4] - There is a concern regarding potential last-minute price drops for flight tickets, similar to trends observed during previous holidays, which could affect consumer purchasing behavior [3][4] Domestic Flight Market - The search volume for domestic flights has increased significantly, with a more than 30% year-on-year rise in search interest for holiday travel as of September 11 [1][2] - The top ten cities for domestic flight searches include major urban centers known for leisure and vacation attributes, such as Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [1] - The price dynamics show a "high at the ends, low in the middle" trend, with expectations of peak travel days around October 4-5 due to holiday strategies [2] International Flight Market - International flight searches have also surged, with a year-on-year increase of over 60% for outbound travel, particularly to East Asian and Southeast Asian destinations [5] - Popular international destinations for the upcoming holiday include Seoul, Bangkok, and Tokyo, with significant interest in low-cost international flights [5][6] - There are reports of extremely low prices for international flights, with some tickets priced below domestic fares, indicating a competitive pricing environment [4][5] Future Market Trends - Post-holiday, there is an expectation of a significant drop in ticket prices, particularly in November and December, with some flights available for as low as 100 yuan excluding taxes [6] - The aviation industry is experiencing a clear seasonal demand pattern, with ongoing efforts to enhance international route recovery and tap into lower-tier city markets [6][7] - The future of the aviation market is anticipated to undergo structural changes, focusing on experience economy and operational efficiency, rather than merely replicating pre-pandemic conditions [7]