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Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with a high probability of a 50 basis point cut due to weak economic data, although there is debate over the extent of the cut [4][5][8] - Historical data shows that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut of 50 basis points since 1987, it has been followed by an economic recession [6][15] - The recent employment data indicates a significant downward revision of 919,000 jobs, suggesting previous employment figures were inflated, which may pave the way for a larger rate cut [8][9] Group 2 - Various financial institutions have differing predictions regarding the rate cut, with Standard Chartered recently changing its forecast from 25 to 50 basis points, citing a rapid shift in the labor market [9][10] - Political pressure from the Trump administration is influencing Fed Chair Powell's decision-making, with expectations that a larger cut would signal loyalty to the administration [13][14] - The upcoming Fed meeting is seen as a critical event that will impact global financial markets and reveal the Fed's policy direction amid economic and political pressures [23]