Paul Krugman Says Trump's Tariffs Make America More Like Denmark

Economic Impact of Tariffs - The implementation of tariffs is raising costs for U.S. businesses, which could lead to a reduction in GDP by approximately 0.5% in the long run [6][13] - The unpredictability of tariff rates creates chaos for businesses, making investments riskier and potentially leading to poor financial outcomes [7][8] - Tariffs are primarily affecting inputs into U.S. manufacturing, thereby increasing operational costs for companies [12][13] Labor Market and Immigration - The reduction of immigrant labor due to immigration policies is negatively impacting productivity and living standards for native-born workers [5][4] - The construction industry, heavily reliant on immigrant labor, is facing challenges that could further drive up housing costs [2][4] Auto Industry Dynamics - The North American auto industry is highly integrated, and tariffs on steel and aluminum are increasing production costs without effectively bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [15][16] - The pressure on manufacturers to automate due to rising costs may not translate into job creation for U.S. workers [16][17] Revenue Generation and Fiscal Policy - Tariffs function as a sales tax on imported goods, which could theoretically help reduce the deficit, but the actual revenue generated may not be substantial [19][20] - The potential increase in tariff rates could lead to higher revenue, but the effectiveness of this approach in addressing the deficit remains uncertain [21] Long-term Trade Relations - The current administration's approach to tariffs is likely to damage U.S. credibility in international trade agreements, making future negotiations more challenging [22][23] - The violation of established trade agreements could have lasting repercussions on the U.S.'s role in the global trading system [22][23]