What Do We Already Know About REAL Supply and Demand in Grains?

Corn Market - The corn market showed little activity with December futures (ZCZ25) remaining unchanged after a trading range of 1.75 cents and a volume of 12,000 contracts [1] - The US is expected to harvest a large corn crop in 2025, and the commercial side has priced in a bearish scenario, as indicated by the stabilization of futures spreads [1] - The National Corn Index was reported at $3.78, up 2.25 cents for the day, with the national average basis at 41.75 cents under December futures [1] Soybean Market - The soybean market opened lower with November futures (ZSX25) trading in a range of 4.5 cents and a volume of 10,500 contracts [4] - The November-January futures spread covered 69% of the calculated full commercial carry, indicating a bearish sentiment compared to 64% a year ago [4] - The National Soybean Index was calculated at $9.5450, with the national average basis at 79.0 cents under November futures [4] Wheat Market - The wheat market was mostly lower, with December futures (ZWZ25) remaining unchanged and a total overnight trade volume of about 5,000 contracts [5] - The Dec-March futures spread covered a neutral 51% of the calculated full commercial carry, while the National SRW Index was at $4.4850 [5] - The National HRW Index was reported at $4.33, marking its lowest monthly close since July 2020 [5]