三年时间规模要“翻一番”，新型储能的“底气”在哪里？

Core Insights - The recent policy expectations for new energy storage have been favorable, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announcing a plan for large-scale development by 2027, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts and direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [1][2] - As of the end of 2024, China's installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global total, with a projected doubling of capacity in less than three years [1][3] Policy and Market Mechanisms - The action plan includes measures to accelerate the improvement of market mechanisms to establish reasonable charging and discharging prices for new energy storage, allowing participation in various energy markets for revenue recovery [2][5] - Several provinces have introduced clear capacity compensation and pricing mechanisms, with Inner Mongolia setting a compensation standard of 0.35 yuan/kWh and Hebei proposing a capacity price of 100 yuan/kW [4][5] Industry Demand and Production - There is a significant demand for storage solutions, with many manufacturers reporting full production lines and a surge in orders, particularly from overseas markets, contributing to a 97% year-on-year increase in global storage cell shipments [3][4] - The domestic market has seen a shift in the growth rhythm of new energy storage installations, with a notable decline in the number of projects connected to the grid after the "531" policy [3][4] Economic Viability - The internal rate of return for independent storage projects under the new compensation mechanisms is projected to be 6.2% in Hebei and 14.8% in Inner Mongolia, exceeding the investment return requirements of large state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The action plan emphasizes the need for a reliable capacity compensation mechanism to stabilize investor confidence and ensure adequate system capacity [6][5] Application Scenarios - The action plan aims to expand the application of new energy storage across various sectors, including power generation and grid integration, to enhance system stability and absorb excess production capacity [7][8] - The focus on user-side "new energy + storage" configurations is expected to be a key development area, with several provinces implementing green electricity direct connection plans [8][9] Challenges and Future Directions - The current high system costs of storage may limit the scale of zero-carbon parks and green electricity connections, necessitating supportive pricing mechanisms from both central and local governments [9][8] - Provinces with strong manufacturing bases in new energy storage, such as Guangdong, are encouraged to innovate in pricing policies to stimulate local demand and support the industry [9]