今年最后一个长假，机票还会跳水吗

Core Insights - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see significant travel activity, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 3.26 million, a year-on-year increase of over 26% [1] - International flight bookings have also risen, surpassing 1.16 million, with a 15% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Domestic Flight Trends - The average price of domestic flights during the National Day period remains stable compared to last year, with a pattern of higher prices at the beginning and end of the holiday, and lower prices in the middle [2] - There has been a notable increase in search volume for domestic flights, with a more than 30% year-on-year growth in searches for holiday travel as of September 11 [2] - Popular domestic destinations include major cities like Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai, while lesser-known destinations have seen search interest increase by over 60% [2] Price Fluctuations - Historical data indicates that flight prices have previously dropped significantly before holidays, leading to consumer complaints about higher prices for early bookings [3][4] - Recent trends show that flight prices have already decreased significantly ahead of the National Day holiday, with some routes offering tickets at 10-20% of their original prices [5] International Flight Insights - International flight prices have also seen dramatic reductions, with some tickets priced as low as 19 yuan before taxes, indicating a competitive pricing environment [6] - Popular international destinations for the upcoming holiday include Seoul, Bangkok, and Tokyo, with a 60% increase in search interest for international flights [6] Future Market Outlook - After the National Day holiday, flight prices are expected to drop further, with some routes offering tickets as low as 100 yuan [7] - The aviation market is experiencing distinct seasonal demand patterns, with a focus on developing lower-tier city markets and enhancing integration with cultural tourism [7][8] - Experts suggest that the recovery of the aviation market will not simply replicate pre-pandemic conditions but will involve structural changes to meet current demands [8]