降息大消息，美联储突发

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 18, with a 93.4% probability according to the "Fed Watch" tool, potentially lowering the policy rate range to 4%-4.25% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, is emerging as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has met with Rieder to discuss monetary policy and regulatory issues, indicating Rieder's strong candidacy [3] - Rieder's analytical approach, which emphasizes forward-looking frameworks over lagging data, aligns with the Trump administration's desire for a more flexible monetary policy [4] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Rieder advocates for a 50 basis point rate cut, which is double the market's expectation of a 25 basis point cut [7] - The market anticipates at least one more rate cut by the end of the year, with traders increasing their bets on the Fed's easing measures [1][9] - Analysts from Renaissance Macro Research and CITIC Securities suggest that the Fed may ultimately compromise with a 25 basis point cut, while also addressing labor market pressures [8][9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, while inflation pressures are still building, leading to a focus on employment issues over inflation concerns [9] - The August CPI data met expectations, suggesting that inflation is not worsening, which supports the case for rate cuts [8][9]