Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is optimistic, driven by Oracle's strong performance and the potential for a new wave of AI development, leading tech stocks to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq towards historical highs [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, with expectations of interest rate cuts to address a slowing job market [1][2] - There was a significant outflow from U.S. equity funds, exceeding $10.4 billion last week, indicating that investors are opting to lock in profits amid uncertainty [6] Group 2 - Recent data shows inflation and employment pressures, with the overall CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month in August, the largest single-month increase since January [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [2] - The job market appears to be weakening, as initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, surpassing expectations [2][3] Group 3 - Market expectations indicate a 74% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 75 basis points by December, reflecting concerns over the labor market rather than inflation [3][4] - Analysts suggest that tariffs have increased some prices but do not foresee sustained inflation acceleration due to rising wages and inflation expectations [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to signal a shift towards monetary easing, with a likely 25 basis point cut [4] Group 4 - The stock market indices showed strong performance last week, with the Nasdaq rising 2% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6%, marking two consecutive weeks of gains [5] - Oracle's robust earnings outlook has positively impacted AI-related sectors, providing support for the major indices [5][6] - Despite the strong market performance, there are warnings that the Federal Reserve's actions could dampen investor enthusiasm, leading to potential profit-taking [6][7] Group 5 - The market sentiment is currently dominated by the principle of not opposing the Federal Reserve, with technical traders following a trend-based approach [7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision may trigger profit-taking opportunities, especially if a dovish stance is announced [7] - Overall market outlook remains cautiously bullish, with potential support for interest-sensitive sectors following a rate cut [7]
美联储重启降息在即 美股能否延续强势上攻
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-14 03:50