绿色和平组织-煤电行业迈向“十五五”煤电何去何从：转型路径与多元机制研究-250914

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of the electricity sector in China's "dual carbon" goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the need for transformation and enhancement of power supply reliability and system flexibility [1] - By mid-2025, China's installed capacity of wind and solar power is expected to reach 1.67 billion kilowatts, surpassing the historical scale of 1.47 billion kilowatts of thermal power, indicating a substantial shift towards renewable energy [1] - The rapid growth in installed capacity has led to a significant increase in power generation, with a total of 247 billion kilowatt-hours added in the first half of 2025, exceeding the overall increase in electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - The explosive growth of renewable energy has created a mismatch with the existing power system, leading to structural adaptation gaps that need to be addressed [2] - The average utilization rates for wind and solar power dropped to 93.2% and 94% respectively in the first half of 2025, reflecting the challenges in accommodating the rapid deployment of renewable energy [2] - Coal power remains a key flexible resource in the current power system, and its transformation will be crucial in bridging the adaptation gap for a high-proportion renewable energy system [2] Group 3 - The report utilizes a comprehensive resource strategic planning model to assess the low-carbon transition goals for China's electricity sector from 2025 to 2035, proposing four development scenarios for coal power [3] - The design of coal power transition pathways aims to align with national electricity supply and demand dynamics while supporting high-proportion renewable energy system regulation needs [3] - The report seeks to provide recommendations for the green low-carbon transition of the electricity system in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the dual carbon objectives [3]