Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-14 09:28Core Viewpoint - Domestic pig prices have unexpectedly dropped to a new low during the traditional consumption peak season, reflecting severe overcapacity pressures in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 14, domestic pig prices reached 13.32 yuan/kg, marking a year-low and below the cash breeding costs for some listed pig companies [1] - In September, pig prices fell to 13.23 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.62%, down 20.1% from the year's peak [2] - The current pig cycle is characterized by less pronounced price fluctuations, with prices not showing significant increases since hitting a low point [2] Group 2: Sales Performance - Major listed pig companies reported increased sales in August, with Muyuan Foods selling 7.001 million pigs (up 27.1% year-on-year) and Wens Foodstuffs selling 3.2457 million pigs (up 37.88% year-on-year) [3] - Smaller listed companies also saw significant sales growth, with Zhenghong Technology and Dongrui Co. reporting increases of 63.31% and 21% respectively [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply and weak demand, is a primary reason for the low pig prices [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented policies to reduce the breeding sow population, aiming to decrease it by approximately 1 million heads [4] - Despite a slight increase in the breeding sow population in August, the ongoing price decline indicates that adjustments may not be sufficient to change the supply-demand dynamics [4] Group 4: Industry Adjustments - Muyuan Foods has reduced its breeding sow population and plans to lower the average weight of pigs being sold, indicating a direct response to current supply pressures [5] - The reduction in breeding sow numbers will take about 10 months to significantly impact the market supply [5] - The industry is expected to see a gradual adjustment in production efficiency, which may not yield noticeable results until early 2026 [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite the ongoing price decline, the A-share market for pig farming stocks has shown resilience, reflecting market expectations of a price bottom [5] - The pig industry index rose by 5.89% in September, marking the highest monthly increase of the year, with most stocks performing well [6] - The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a near 10-year low, which may attract investment as the market anticipates accelerated capacity reduction [6]