“十四五”财政政策更加积极，民生支出近100万亿

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy is increasingly focused on stabilizing the economy, with a significant shift towards supporting people's livelihoods and investing in human capital during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Space - The fiscal policy space has expanded due to increased fiscal deficit rates, which have risen from 2.7% to 3.8% and further to 4% this year, allowing for more proactive fiscal measures [2][3]. - The government has arranged an additional 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and over 10 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferrals, indicating a robust fiscal response to economic challenges [2][3]. Focus on Livelihoods - Approximately 70% of fiscal spending is directed towards people's livelihoods, with total expected spending on livelihoods reaching nearly 100 trillion yuan over five years [1][7]. - Specific allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for health, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security [7]. Support for Consumption and Innovation - The fiscal policy has shifted towards supporting consumption, with measures such as a 2 trillion yuan VAT refund policy and subsidies for personal consumption loans [6][9]. - The government plans to continue enhancing fiscal support for technology innovation, with expected spending of 5.5 trillion yuan on technology during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 34% increase from the previous period [9]. Economic Stability and Risk Management - The fiscal policy aims to balance risk prevention and economic development, maintaining sufficient fiscal space for future initiatives [3][4]. - The government's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average, indicating room for further borrowing and deficit increases [3].