非银存款连续两个月大幅多增，“存款搬家”趋势强化？

Core Insights - The recent financial data indicates a "deposit migration" trend, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, which is linked to the performance of the domestic stock market [1][3][4] Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, household deposits decreased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 600 billion yuan, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [1][3] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a decline compared to the previous month [1][2] - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8%, the lowest since June 2021, indicating enhanced liquidity and a shift towards more active funds [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in non-bank deposits is interpreted as a signal of residents moving funds into capital markets, particularly as the stock market shows strong performance [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the current trend of "deposit migration" is likely to continue, driven by lower deposit interest rates and a strong equity market [5][7] - The capital market's performance is seen as a key factor attracting funds from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Despite the increase in non-bank deposits, there remains a cautious attitude among residents regarding future economic conditions, reflected in a strong preference for saving over borrowing [8][9] - The household sector is exhibiting a trend of deleveraging, with a significant reduction in loan growth compared to deposits [8][9] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending are becoming increasingly important, with measures such as consumption vouchers and interest subsidies for personal loans being implemented [10]