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中信建投:慢牛整理期继续聚焦景气赛道 关注通胀改善
智通财经网·2025-09-14 11:22

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that investor focus on fundamentals has diminished recently, but as market valuations recover and enter a slow bull phase, fundamental factors may regain attention [1][3][17] - The slow bull market requires a strong economic sector as a leader, but it is challenging to form without overall fundamental support, particularly needing a reversal of deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1][3][17] Group 2 - The AI computing sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% and the STAR Market Index increasing by 5.5% [3][6] - Recent trading volumes have decreased, with average daily turnover dropping from nearly 3 trillion yuan to around 2.3 trillion yuan [3][11] - Margin trading has seen a significant improvement, with net inflows of 518 billion yuan compared to 256 billion yuan the previous week [3][11] Group 3 - Inflation factors are expected to return to market focus, with August CPI showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and core CPI rising by 0.9% [4][17] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, ending a streak of eight consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [4][17] - The improvement in PPI for upstream industries like coal, oil, and steel suggests that anti-involution policies may be starting to take effect [4][17] Group 4 - Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts are rising, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September and two additional cuts of 50 basis points expected later in the year [28] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates [28] Group 5 - The slow bull market phase is focusing on high-growth sectors, with AI computing remaining a key driver [39] - Global investments in AI infrastructure are accelerating, with major companies like NVIDIA and Oracle reporting substantial revenue growth [39] - Domestic companies are also increasing capital expenditures, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the AI sector [39] Group 6 - The new energy vehicle market is maintaining high growth, with global sales reaching 9.1 million units in the first half of 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase [43] - The domestic energy storage market is also expanding, with a 125.37% year-on-year increase in new tenders [43][48] - The demand for power batteries is expected to grow by 35% to 1,313 GWh by 2025, driven by both new energy vehicles and energy storage [48] Group 7 - The pig farming industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with government measures aimed at reducing excess production capacity [50] - Recent policies include the reduction of breeding sows and the release of frozen pork reserves to stabilize supply and prices [50]