智通财经网·2025-09-14 11:35Core Viewpoint - VLCC TD3C freight rates reached $74,338 per day on September 11, marking a 113% year-on-year increase, surpassing Q4 data for 2023 and 2024, indicating potential for record high rates in Q4 2023 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has been a key demand catalyst, announcing an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October, with cumulative increases of 2.193 million barrels per day since March [3] - Continuous sanctions from the US and EU on Russian and Iranian fleets have tightened supply, with 1,636 vessels sanctioned globally, accounting for 4% of total capacity, including 830 oil tankers [4] VLCC Supply Constraints - Only 3 VLCCs have been delivered this year, with 1 vessel scrapped, leading to a tight supply situation; the current VLCC fleet consists of 906 vessels, with 20.2% over 20 years old [5] - The order book shows 112 VLCCs, with limited deliveries expected before mid-2026, maintaining a tight supply environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The expanding supply-demand gap suggests that freight rates may reach new highs this year, with continued recommendations for companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026.SH), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975.SH) [6]