管涛：日本经济停滞终结不能说是量宽的胜利

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is cautious in its monetary policy decisions regarding interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction due to various internal and external constraints, despite recent inflationary pressures and economic recovery [1][16]. Group 1: Economic Context - Japan has experienced persistent inflation and positive economic growth, emerging from decades of stagnation, with the central bank having raised interest rates three times since March of last year, totaling 60 basis points [1][4]. - The inflationary trend in Japan is attributed to a series of external shocks rather than the effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) policies [1][4][16]. Group 2: Historical Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan was the first to implement QE in response to the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s, gradually lowering interest rates to near zero and officially introducing QE in 2001 [2][3]. - Despite the introduction of QE and QQE, Japan struggled with low inflation rates until 2022, when inflation began to exceed the 2% target [3][4]. Group 3: Recent Inflation Drivers - The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, significantly increasing international commodity prices, which contributed to inflation in Japan [6][8]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated supply chain issues and commodity price increases, impacting Japan's inflation [6][9]. Group 4: Inflation Statistics - Japan's CPI and core CPI inflation rates rose to 2.5%, 3.2%, and 2.7% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a significant shift from previous years of deflation [4][8]. - In 2022, Japan's average PPI inflation reached 9.8%, with CPI and core CPI inflation also showing substantial increases compared to previous years [8][12]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Implications - The rise in inflation and inflation expectations has prompted the Bank of Japan to consider normalizing its monetary policy, with interest rate hikes beginning in January of the previous year [14][16]. - The central bank's decisions are influenced by external monetary policy trends, particularly the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which have led to a depreciation of the yen [9][16]. Group 6: Economic Growth and Outlook - Japan's nominal GDP growth is projected to average 3.0% from 2021 to 2024, indicating an improvement compared to previous years [12][13]. - However, the economic recovery remains fragile, with potential challenges arising from rising interest rates and government financing costs due to high debt levels [15][16].