美联储会超预期大幅降息吗

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data has reignited discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a significant focus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][2][3] - In August, U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, and the non-farm employment figures for April 2024 to March 2025 were revised down by 911,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, indicating that while the job market is cooling, there is no evidence of large-scale layoffs or imminent recession [1][3] Group 2 - The inflation data, while not obstructing rate cuts, presents a potential rebound risk, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [2] - Consumer long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9% for September, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, and a hasty 50 basis point cut could lead to greater controversy and negatively impact the credibility of the dollar [3]