Inflation's ways give room for a rate cut, but RBI may not do it

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to cut rates by 25-50 basis points due to a comfortable inflation trajectory, but is not expected to do so in the current cycle given strong Q1 GDP numbers and recent consumption boosts from GST cuts [1][6] - CPI-based inflation rose to 2.07% in August from July's eight-year-low of 1.61%, entering the RBI's medium-term target of 2-6% [1][6] - Economists expect inflation to ease further due to GST rate cuts effective from September 22, with CPI for FY26 likely lower than the RBI's estimate of 3.1% [6] Group 2 - Retail inflation for September is currently tracking at approximately 1.75%, with October potentially going below 1% due to GST cuts and base effects [6] - Growth momentum is expected to slow in H2 FY26 as support from transient factors wanes and the impact of tariffs becomes more visible [6] - There are downside risks to inflation that may leave scope for another repo rate cut in the October-December period, although this was priced out by the market after a strong GDP print [6]