广发基金孙迪: 深入理解“先进制造” 扎根AI挖掘长期价值
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-14 20:14

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced" in investment transcends mere technology, embodying a depth of understanding and foresight in industry trends, corporate barriers, and global competitiveness [1] Group 1: Understanding "Advanced" - "Advanced" is broken down into four interconnected dimensions: industry growth stage, competitive barriers, profitability, and global competitiveness [2][3] - The industry must be in a growth phase with significant market potential for a company to be considered advanced [2] - Companies must establish sufficient competitive barriers, which can stem from technological breakthroughs, channel control, or customer relationships [2] - Strong profitability is essential, indicating a company's ability to avoid commoditization and price wars through genuine innovation [3] - The ultimate test of advanced manufacturing is the ability to compete on a global scale, integrating into global supply chains and competing with leading international firms [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves a "three-layer screening" approach, balancing offensive and defensive methodologies [4][5] - The first layer focuses on major industry trends that can significantly alter lifestyles, such as mobile internet, AI, and new energy, which present long-term investment opportunities [4] - The second layer targets traditional manufacturing and cyclical growth sectors when major industry opportunities are absent, identifying turning points in supply and demand [4] - The third layer involves investing in high-quality companies with reasonable valuations during stable cycles to benefit from steady earnings growth [5] - The investment philosophy emphasizes a balance between industry concentration and appropriate diversification to manage risks [6] Group 3: AI and Semiconductor Investment Outlook - The AI industry is viewed as a promising long-term investment opportunity, potentially comparable to the mobile internet wave, currently in its early stages [7] - Within the AI sector, hardware infrastructure, particularly overseas computing power chains, is highlighted as a key focus area due to its substantial market potential and favorable conditions [7] - In the semiconductor sector, the current cycle is characterized as a relatively weak upward phase driven by AI, with a focus on wafer manufacturing due to high barriers to entry [8] - The company is also interested in well-positioned chip design areas, including domestic computing power and storage solutions [8]