豪赌美联储“降息大礼包” 投资者这次会翻车吗？

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focused on whether Federal Reserve officials will dismiss market expectations of an extended interest rate cut cycle into next year, with a strong bet on a 25 basis point cut this week and a potential continuation of cuts until 2026 to mitigate recession risks [1][4]. Market Reactions - The anticipation of rate cuts has driven U.S. Treasury yields to multi-month lows, boosted the stock market to historical highs, and exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieved a new record after a prolonged rally [4]. Bond Market Insights - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [4]. - Jack McIntyre from Brandywine Global Investment Management has increased his bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries, anticipating that signs of a weakening job market may prompt investors to believe that the Fed's easing timing is overdue [4]. Volatility Expectations - Some stock traders are hedging against potential volatility, as the expectation of a 25 basis point cut is already reflected in current stock prices, with options traders predicting about a 1% two-way movement in the S&P 500 index [7]. - Gareth Ryan from IUR Capital emphasizes the importance of the Fed's dot plot in determining market reactions, suggesting that ambiguity regarding future rate cuts could lead to greater market volatility [7]. Political Pressures - Investors are aware of the pressures the Fed faces, including criticism from former President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, and the potential influence of Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore on the upcoming policy decision [8]. - The voting composition of the Fed during the upcoming meeting will be scrutinized for clues, with any dissenting votes against a 25 basis point cut seen as a hawkish signal [8].