国际能源署报告：供过于求仍是国际石油市场隐忧

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report highlights that the international oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over oversupply [1][2] - The report indicates that while geopolitical concerns are rising, the actual impact of sanctions on oil supply from Iran and Russia has been limited so far [1][2] - The report anticipates a significant increase in global oil production, driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, with a projected rise of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, are causing market anxiety, with fears of new sanctions leading to potential supply shortages [1] - The EU's decision to ban imports of refined products from Russian oil starting in 2026 may significantly alter international oil trade dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the oversupply remains a critical concern, with OPEC+ countries planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, which is part of a longer-term strategy to unwind previous production cuts [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S. and Canada, are maintaining production levels near historical highs, contributing to the overall supply increase [2] Production Forecasts - Global oil production is expected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 105.8 million barrels per day, with further increases projected for 2026 [3] - OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, aligning closely with the increases from non-OPEC+ countries [3] Refining Capacity and Trends - Global refinery crude processing surged by 400,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record 85.1 million barrels per day, but is expected to decline in October due to seasonal maintenance [4] - The report projects that global refinery throughput will average 83.5 million barrels per day in 2025, with a growth of 580,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels in July, with a total increase of 187 million barrels since the beginning of the year, although they remain below the five-year average [4]