广发基金孙迪：深入理解“先进制造” 扎根AI挖掘长期价值

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced" in investment transcends technology, representing a depth of understanding and foresight in industry trends, company barriers, and global competitiveness [1] Group 1: Understanding "Advanced" Manufacturing - "Advanced" is broken down into four interconnected dimensions: industry growth stage, competitive barriers, profitability, and global competitiveness [3][4] - The industry must be in a growth phase with significant market potential for a company to be considered advanced [3] - Companies must establish sufficient competitive barriers, which can stem from technological breakthroughs, channel control, or customer relationships [4] Group 2: Profitability and Global Competitiveness - Strong profitability is a financial manifestation of advanced manufacturing, focusing on companies that avoid homogenized competition and price wars [4] - The ultimate test of advanced manufacturing is the ability to compete on a global scale, integrating into global supply chains and competing with industry giants [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves a "three-layer screening" approach to identify and dynamically allocate opportunities [5][6] - The first layer focuses on major industry trends that can significantly alter lifestyles, such as mobile internet and AI, which are expected to yield substantial returns [5] - The second layer targets traditional manufacturing and cyclical growth sectors when no major industry opportunities are present [5] - The third layer involves investing in high-quality companies with reasonable valuations during stable cycles [6] Group 4: AI and Semiconductor Investment Opportunities - The AI industry is viewed as a long-term investment opportunity, with the potential to rival the mobile internet wave [7] - Within the AI sector, hardware infrastructure, particularly overseas computing chains, is highlighted as a promising area due to its growth potential and favorable market conditions [7] - In the semiconductor sector, the focus is on wafer manufacturing, which is characterized by high barriers and sustained demand [8] Group 5: Long-term Value Discovery - Technology investment is framed as a marathon focused on discovering long-term value rather than chasing short-term trends [9] - The management strategy emphasizes core positions in overseas computing chains while monitoring the fundamentals of secondary companies [9]