中信证券：模拟芯片国产替代有望加速

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against imported simulation chips from the United States, focusing on general interface chips and gate driver chips with a process node of 40nm and above [1] - Major US manufacturers involved in this investigation include Texas Instruments, ADI, Broadcom, and Onsemi, as per the application submitted by the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association [1] - The expansion efforts of overseas manufacturers like Texas Instruments, coupled with aggressive pricing strategies to regain lost market share, have slowed down the pace of domestic substitution in the simulation chip sector [1] Group 2 - The profit margins for Texas Instruments from 2021 to 2024 are projected to be 67.47%, 68.76%, 62.9%, and 58.14% respectively, indicating a downward trend in profitability [1] - The recent tariff events since 2025 have increased the willingness of downstream customers to substitute with domestic products, and the price hikes by Texas Instruments from June to August suggest a shift in competitive strategy [1] - The ongoing anti-dumping investigation is expected to create a more favorable market environment for domestic manufacturers, potentially improving their profitability [1][2] Group 3 - The simulation chip sector has been relatively stagnant within the broader semiconductor industry since early 2025, but current industry and policy trends are driving an upward trajectory in the fundamentals of this sector [2] - There is an optimistic outlook for accelerated domestic substitution in the simulation chip market, with local manufacturers likely to benefit from improved market conditions [2] - Focus should be placed on leading domestic manufacturers as they are expected to gain from the evolving market landscape [2]