瑞银：今年以来新兴市场股市跑赢美股，关键在于本土散户资金的强劲推动

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have outperformed US stocks this year primarily due to strong domestic retail investor participation rather than significant foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets is driven by local retail investors, despite downward adjustments in corporate profit expectations and concerns over potential US tariffs [1] - Investor focus has shifted towards popular sectors such as AI and technology, contributing to an overall optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to potential risks such as a slowdown in the US economy and global growth deceleration, alongside the positive effects of easing inflation and monetary policy outside the US [1] - If multiple cyclical factors align, including a faster US economic slowdown compared to other countries, declining real interest rates in the US, and a significant depreciation of the dollar, emerging markets are expected to outperform US stocks within the next 6 to 12 months [1] - This anticipated outperformance is viewed as cyclical rather than structural [1]