美联储降息大消息！特朗普最新发声：幅度会很大！

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is exerting significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a substantial interest rate cut during the upcoming meeting, marking the first easing policy in nine months [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The market is highly confident that the Federal Reserve will at least cut rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of 96.4% for this move, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 3.6% [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a crucial meeting from September 16 to 17, where it will decide on the interest rate cut, with a consensus that this will be the first cut of the year [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the wording of the meeting's statement, the dot plot, and the voting results will be critical in determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle has driven asset prices to high levels, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near its lowest point since April [6]. - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, and the Nasdaq 100 index recently set a new record, reflecting strong market performance amid expectations of rate cuts [6]. - Economic indicators show a mixed picture, with persistent inflation and softening labor data, leading traders to weigh the potential for more aggressive easing measures from the Federal Reserve [6][8]. Group 3: Implications of Leadership Changes - President Trump has expressed interest in appointing new candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in leadership that could influence monetary policy [3]. - The ongoing legal battle regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the composition of the board and, consequently, the decision-making process regarding interest rates [4][5].