智通财经网·2025-09-15 02:21Core Viewpoint - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve due to the "check overproduction" policy leading to reduced output and the anticipated recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, providing upward price elasticity for both types of coal [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound to long-term contract prices, recently surpassing the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [2]. - The current adjustment in prices is attributed to the seasonal transition from summer to autumn, which has weakened coal consumption, but the upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices up again, particularly in the chemical sector [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different levels of market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector exhibits dual attributes of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields despite overall profit pressures [3]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Key coal stocks benefiting from these trends include: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].