陶冬：新欧债危机在酝酿中

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but a larger cut is not completely ruled out [1][2] - Recent inflation data shows a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating the fastest price rise since January [1][2] - The job market is showing signs of weakness, with an average of only 29,000 new jobs added over the past three months, while a monthly addition of 80,000 is needed for economic stability [2][3] Group 2: European Economic Concerns - Fitch downgraded France's long-term sovereign rating from AA- to A+, citing political instability and difficulties in reducing fiscal deficits [3][4] - France's government debt has risen from 94% to 114% over the past decade, with economic growth stagnating around 1% [4][5] - Both France and the UK are facing significant fiscal challenges, with the potential for a slow-burning fiscal crisis if market confidence deteriorates [5][6]