智通财经网·2025-09-15 03:23Group 1 - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year (September, October, December), a significant upgrade from previous expectations of rate cuts only in September and December [1] - This adjustment is based on recent data showing easing inflation pressures and signs of a slowing labor market, with the market widely expecting the Fed to restart its easing cycle after December 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that a rate cut may occur at the September 16-17 meeting, highlighting rising risks in the labor market while warning that inflation threats remain [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley further notes that the current market environment allows the Fed to shift more quickly to a neutral policy stance, potentially implementing rate cuts of 25 basis points in four consecutive meetings starting this week, continuing until January next year, with additional cuts expected in April and July 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, Matthew Luzetti, believes that while the current forecast does not include further cuts in 2026, risks lean towards more rate cuts if inflation and labor market trends do not align with levels below the neutral rate [1] - According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week, with only a 5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1]