欧洲苯市场需求疲软持续承压

Core Viewpoint - The European benzene market is facing structural demand weakness and local supply surplus, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the market through 2025 [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The European benzene market is dominated by oversupply, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the automotive and construction sectors, resulting in weak demand for raw benzene and its derivatives [2][3] - As of August 15, the average price of benzene in the ARA region was $763.95 per ton, down 19% from the second half of 2024 and 27% from the average price in 2024 [2] - The economic viability of benzene production is deteriorating, leading to a slight tightening of local supply [2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, have caused significant volatility in oil prices, impacting the European benzene market [3] - The imposition of a 15% tariff on EU products by the U.S. has exacerbated the oversupply situation in Europe, making exports to the U.S. unprofitable [3] - Current data indicates that European exports to the U.S. are incurring losses of $5 to $15 per ton, limiting arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are generally pessimistic about the benzene market's prospects, with expectations of no significant improvement in the fourth quarter of this year [3][4] - The focus is shifting towards 2026, as the ongoing weakness in the automotive and construction sectors continues to hinder demand recovery [3] - Long-term recovery may require significant capacity reductions in steam cracking facilities, which could take years to manifest in the market [4]