开源证券：市场库存去化明显 存储步入全面涨价行情

Core Viewpoint - Major storage manufacturers have announced production cuts since 2025, leading to a significant reduction in market inventory and an expected price increase in enterprise storage due to rising demand driven by AI applications and data centers [1][3]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Micron expects a 10% production cut, Samsung anticipates a 15% cut, and SK Hynix plans a 10% reduction in the first half of the year, while Kioxia will start cutting production from December 2024 [1]. - The NAND Flash market price index rose by 9.2% and the DRAM market price index increased by 47.7% in the first half of 2025 due to these production cuts [1]. Group 2: DRAM Market Dynamics - Some manufacturers are shifting traditional DRAM capacity to higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM, leading to a price surge for DDR4 and LPDDR4X since Q2 2024, with a 50% increase in average trading price for PC DRAM [2]. - The transition to newer processes is expected to tighten the supply of DDR5 and LPDDR5X, indicating a potential comprehensive price increase in the DRAM market [2]. Group 3: AI and Capital Expenditure Influence - Increased capital expenditure from major overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is driving up enterprise storage demand, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years [3]. - On September 4, 2025, SanDisk announced a price increase of over 10% for its products, citing rising demand from AI applications and data centers [3]. Group 4: Domestic Market Opportunities - The trend of domestic replacement is gaining momentum, with Chinese companies expected to benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure and increasing demand for enterprise storage [4]. - In 2022, Kingston held a 78.12% market share in global memory module suppliers, while domestic firms like Memory Technology and Jiahua Jinwei are gaining traction [4]. Group 5: Beneficiary Companies - Beneficiary companies include storage module manufacturers such as Demingli, Jiangbolong, and Bawei Storage, as well as advanced storage firms like Zhaoyi Innovation and Hengshuo [5]. - NAND manufacturers like Zhaoyi Innovation and Dongxin, along with overseas manufacturers such as Micron and SanDisk, are also positioned to benefit from these market dynamics [5].