Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with egg futures experiencing a strong upward trend amid seasonal price rebounds and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close on September 15, the main contract for egg futures opened at 3091.00 yuan per 500 kg, reaching a high of 3197.00 yuan and a low of 3079.00 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 3.81% [1]. - The egg market is currently in a phase of oscillating upward movement, indicating a strong performance in the futures market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the age of culling chickens has decreased to 500 days, but it remains higher than previous cycle lows, indicating limited capacity reduction. The pace of culling is slowing down, and with the drop in temperatures in September, egg production rates are expected to recover [2]. - Demand is relatively weak, with school openings increasing demand from cafeterias, but low vegetable prices are suppressing household consumption. Additionally, the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking by restaurants and food manufacturers is not meeting expectations [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - National Investment Trust Futures suggests monitoring the strength and sustainability of the current price rebound in the spot market, while also considering the potential for long positions in distant contracts and the exit of short positions in near-month contracts [1]. - Based on the leading index for culling chickens, it is anticipated that egg prices may continue to decline until March of next year, recommending a strategy of shorting near-month contracts on price rallies [2]. - In a high volatility environment, options selling is seen as more cost-effective, with initial strategies suggesting the construction of a wide straddle to generate premium income, transitioning to a bear spread as market conditions evolve [2].
7、8月鸡苗补栏处于低位 鸡蛋期货价格低位反弹
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-15 06:10