Market Overview - Urea prices in Shandong region continue to decline, with small particle mainstream factory transaction prices ranging from 1580 to 1640 RMB/ton, and specific market prices in Linyi and Heze around 1640-1650 RMB/ton and 1630-1640 RMB/ton respectively [1] - As of September 12, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 8896, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day [1] - The average daily urea production in the past week is 185,600 tons, showing a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year high, with significant new production expected by 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - Changjiang Futures notes that with new urea production facilities coming online in Q3, and due to increased maintenance and a decline in urea operating rates, short-term daily production is expected to be lower than the same period last year. Agricultural fertilizer demand remains scattered, and while the supply-demand balance for compound fertilizers has slightly improved, it is still in a seasonal accumulation phase [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that urea supply is tightening in the short term, with expectations of a relaxed supply. Daily production is anticipated to continue declining this week, but new facilities are expected to gradually increase production to 200,000 tons/day by mid to late September. Domestic agricultural demand remains weak, while fertilizer exports are performing relatively well [2] - The overall domestic urea fundamentals remain loose, but with the backdrop of "export quota system" and "price stabilization measures," urea prices are expected to have both upper and lower limits. Macro factors include lower domestic urea production in India, with urea tenders for 1 million tons each on the east and west coasts, priced below market expectations [2]
市场仍处季节性累库周期 尿素盘面看空情绪较浓
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-15 06:15