欧洲苯市场需求疲软持续承压

Core Viewpoint - The European benzene market is facing structural demand weakness and local supply surplus, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the market through 2025 [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The benzene and its derivatives industry is experiencing a significant downturn due to weak demand from the automotive and construction sectors, with procurement volumes for key derivatives like isopropyl benzene, styrene, and cyclohexane continuously declining [2] - As of August 15, the average spot price for benzene in the ARA region was $763.95 per ton, down 19% from the second half of 2024 and 27% from the average price in 2024, indicating a sustained low price environment [2] - The ongoing supply surplus is suppressing prices, leading to a slight tightening of local supply as production economics worsen [2] Group 2: Trade Impacts - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, have caused oil price volatility, further complicating the European benzene market [3] - The imposition of a 15% tariff on EU products by the U.S. has exacerbated the local supply surplus, making exports to the U.S. unprofitable, with losses estimated at $5 to $15 per ton for European benzene exports [3] - The traditional export-import dynamics between Europe and the U.S. are expected to be disrupted, necessitating price adjustments on both sides to restore balance [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are generally pessimistic about the benzene market's prospects, with expectations of no significant improvement in the fourth quarter of this year, shifting focus to 2026 [4] - Despite potential short-term boosts from U.S. import arbitrage, the ongoing weakness in the automotive and construction sectors in Europe limits the recovery of related chemical product demand [4] - Long-term recovery is contingent upon capacity adjustments in Europe, with industry insiders suggesting that substantial impacts from capacity reductions will take years to materialize [4]