58安居客研究院：8月房产经纪行业景气度指数上升至47.26 市场成交量有望增长

Core Insights - The national real estate market in August continued to show a differentiated adjustment trend, with policy benefits gradually becoming evident and market confidence showing positive changes, indicating a clearer market bottom and laying the foundation for the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - In first-tier cities, the decline in new home prices has shown signs of narrowing, with new residential sales prices decreasing by 0.1% month-on-month, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to July, indicating resilience in core city markets [1] - Shanghai experienced a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.4%, attributed to the concentration of quality improvement-type housing in core areas and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in outer areas, which effectively stimulated demand [1] Group 2: Three-tier City Challenges - Third-tier cities face significant inventory pressure due to previous years' stimulus policies leading to oversupply, and the support for these cities is relatively weaker compared to first and second-tier cities, limiting their self-adjustment capabilities [1] - Although measures such as converting existing housing into affordable housing have alleviated some inventory pressure, the direct effects of policies are gradually weakening due to continuously decreasing demand [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The real estate brokerage industry’s prosperity index rose by 2.8 to 47.26 in August, marking the largest single-month increase of the year, with new and second-hand housing search heat slightly increasing by 0.6 and 1.0 respectively compared to July, signaling positive market sentiment [2] - It is anticipated that September may end the downward trend observed since June, with transaction volumes expected to rebound as the traditional peak season approaches, supported by favorable policies [2] - In the medium to long term, the acceleration of the implementation of affordable housing refinancing and the monetization of urban village renovations are expected to inject new momentum into the market [2]