长安期货张晨：供强需弱改善有限 尿素价格承压

Market Overview - Urea futures prices have declined, with the 2601 contract closing at 1663 CNY/ton on September 12, down 64 CNY/ton or 3.67% from the end of August, primarily due to weak demand and disappointing Indian tender results [3][5] - The domestic spot market also showed weakness, with prices in various regions dropping between 60 to 90 CNY/ton compared to the end of August [3] Supply Side - Domestic urea production capacity utilization rate was 79.34% as of September 12, down 3.05 percentage points from the end of August, with a daily average production of 18.56 million tons, a decrease of 71.42 million tons from the end of August [7] - Despite a slight decrease in daily production, supply pressure remains due to high overall production levels, with expectations of a rebound in production as previously shut-down facilities resume operations [6][7] Demand Side - Agricultural demand is currently slow, with a seasonal gap in demand for urea, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream distributors [9] - Industrial demand has not shown growth compared to previous years, with fertilizer manufacturers operating at low capacity utilization rates and high inventory levels [9][12] Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen an increase in inventory, with factory stock reaching 113.27 million tons as of September 12, up 4.69 million tons from the end of August [15] - Port inventory decreased slightly, but overall inventory levels remain high, indicating ongoing supply pressures [15] Cost Factors - The profitability of urea production has decreased due to falling prices, with various production methods experiencing reduced or negative margins [18] - Coal prices have stabilized, but overall demand remains limited, affecting the cost structure of urea production [18] Conclusion - The urea market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to continued price pressure [19] - Future demand may see some support from seasonal agricultural needs, but overall market conditions suggest limited upside potential for prices in the near term [19]