英国央行拟放缓量化紧缩步伐，本周利率决议料按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to slow down its annual £100 billion government bond reduction pace due to increased volatility in the bond market, while maintaining the main interest rate unchanged [1] Group 1: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Market Reactions - The Bank of England's QT has been a point of concern for financial markets, with some voices suggesting it is a reason for rising government borrowing costs [1] - Since 2022, the Bank has reduced its holdings of UK government bonds from £875 billion (approximately $1.2 trillion) to £558 billion, maintaining a selling pace of £100 billion per year [1] - A Reuters survey indicates economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee to lower the median QT scale to £67.5 billion, which is more significant than the previously estimated £72 billion [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The 30-year UK government bond yield reached its highest level since 1998, while the newly issued 10-year bond yield hit a new high since 2008, putting pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the November budget announcement [2] - The Bank of England's recent estimates show that QT has only increased government borrowing costs by 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points [2] - The Bank aims to eliminate excess liquidity accumulated from previous quantitative easing (QE) policies, but the specific "neutral level" of liquidity remains unclear, with current liquidity around £650 billion [2] Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - UK inflation is projected to rise to 4%, with the Bank having recently completed its fifth rate cut in over a year, albeit by a narrow 5:4 vote [3] - The Bank of England's Governor indicated significant uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with market expectations for another cut this year being only one-third likely [4] - Despite some economists delaying their rate cut predictions, the majority still believe the Bank will cut rates again in November or December [4]