创金合信基金魏凤春：风险溢价又起波澜

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently in a phase of increased volatility and divergence, necessitating a focus on deterministic investments to mitigate risks [1] - Gold's upward trend has weakened, aligning with the assessment that the Fed's rate cut trades are largely concluded, leading to increased investor confidence in gold pricing [2] - The performance of various asset classes shows a clear distinction in investor sentiment towards traditional versus emerging technologies, with significant movements in the tech sector [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data reflects the effects of anti-involution policies, with CPI indicating weak consumer demand and PPI showing a rebound as a direct result of these policies [4] - The growth rate of social financing remains stable, indicating no significant influx of funds into the stock market or a clear signal of credit expansion in the real economy [4] - New RMB loans in August were 589 billion, lower than the previous year's 900 billion, suggesting weak credit demand despite the central bank's easing measures [4] Group 3: External Factors and Risk Premium - External shocks, including geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, have heightened risk premiums, impacting asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the potential for increased conflict have raised concerns about the stability of risk premiums in the market [7] - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates a trend of rising risk premiums, reflecting the market's reaction to economic data versus expectations [7] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that low-volatility strategies may be effective, with a narrowing divergence between stocks and bonds [8] - The anticipated anti-dumping investigation into U.S. imports of simulated chips may reignite import substitution trends, serving as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations [8] - Emphasis on self-sustaining market demand as the true source of value investment is highlighted, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring [8]