全球“央行超级周”再现！这一次美联储能如约“大幅降息”吗？

Group 1 - Investors expect a 76% probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts this year, with the first cut anticipated at the September meeting [1][3] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [3][4] Group 2 - Recent data indicates a weakening U.S. labor market, with weekly unemployment claims rising to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, which may overshadow persistent inflation [3][4] - Core CPI increased by 0.35% month-over-month, marking the strongest monthly performance since early April, driven by tariff policies [4] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, shifting focus from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with expectations of three rate cuts this year [4] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5%, with market confidence bolstered by a recent trade agreement with the U.S. [5][6] - Political uncertainty in Japan has increased following the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba, which may delay any potential rate hikes [6] - The Bank of England's recent rate cut decision was contentious, reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures, with upcoming economic data expected to provide further insights [7][8] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to restart rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction to 2.5%, driven by rising unemployment and GDP contraction [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the Canadian economy is on the brink of recession, prompting the Bank of Canada to adopt a cautious approach with potential further cuts in the coming months [9]