智通财经网·2025-09-15 07:39Core Viewpoint - The new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit the U.S. real estate chain, with historical data indicating that a reduction of 150-200 basis points in mortgage rates can lead to significant market movements [1] Group 1: Interest Rates and Real Estate - The U.S. real estate market is at a historical low point, and the demand for tools is expected to rise as the real estate cycle enters a recovery phase [2] - The elasticity of stock prices in the post-cycle sector is considerable, with past interest rate cuts leading to significant price increases for related companies [3] - The current high federal funds rate is expected to decline, driven by the need to alleviate interest payment burdens and rising unemployment pressures, making large-scale rate cuts a necessary policy choice [4] Group 2: Real Estate Market Position - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing low transaction volumes, but strong demand potential exists, which has been suppressed by the "rate lock" effect for 2-3 years [5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts, combined with the home-buying activities of millennials, are expected to effectively activate the U.S. real estate market [5] - The expected recovery in the U.S. real estate market in the first half of 2026 will further enhance the performance of the home appliance and tool industries [6]