9月降息预期急剧升温 铅价向上突破震荡区间

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend, particularly in lead futures, which closed at 17,160.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase. This movement is influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics in the lead market [1]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. Labor Department reported only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and wage growth has slowed. This data has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to increased market liquidity expectations [1]. Supply Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the processing fees for lead concentrate have been lowered again due to stable earnings from primary lead by-products and strong willingness to operate. However, the supply of lead concentrate remains tight. In the recycled lead sector, most companies are still operating at a loss, facing raw material shortages and maintaining low operating rates [1]. Demand Insights - Newhu Futures noted that the operating rate of lead-acid batteries remained stable compared to the previous week, with average orders during the back-to-school season. However, export orders for lead-acid batteries have declined due to the implementation of tariff sanctions in the Middle East [1]. Market Outlook - Wuzhong Futures indicated that the weak labor market data from the U.S. has raised concerns about recessionary rate cuts. Following the recent CPI data, which slightly exceeded expectations, the market anticipates three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the remaining meetings of the year. This has led to a renewed focus on preemptive rate cuts, strengthening both precious and non-ferrous metals. The marginally improving industrial data, combined with a strong market atmosphere, suggests that lead prices may break through their current range and are expected to trend stronger in the short term [1].