Youtubeยท2025-09-15 08:26Market Overview - The S&P 500's equity risk premium has reached zero, indicating a potential bubble in the market [1] - Massive investments in data centers are reminiscent of the tech boom, with concerns about sustainability and reliance on a single client, OpenAI [2][3] Investment Strategy - The company is adopting a defensive stance in equity investments, acknowledging the risks associated with current market exuberance [4][3] - There is a cautionary approach towards tech stocks due to potential reversals in the Japanese carry trade, which could impact US tech investments [8][7] Japan's Economic Policy - Japan's current policy rate is approximately 0.5%, with expectations for a 25 basis point increase, which could reverse the carry trade [6][7] - An increase in Japanese interest rates may negatively affect US tech stocks, as Japanese investors may withdraw funds from the US [8] China Market Insights - The company has allocated about 10% of its funds to China, indicating a belief in the potential for growth despite being underweight in the US [10] - Chinese stocks are considered cheap, and the government is showing a willingness to support rising share prices, which is crucial for investment [11][12] Housing Market in China - The Chinese housing market requires a clearing of excess capacity, and while lower interest rates may help, significant government intervention may be necessary [17][19] - The government could potentially buy excess housing for social purposes, which would significantly impact the market [19] Electric Vehicle (EV) Sector in China - The company is currently avoiding investments in the Chinese EV sector due to concerns about excess capacity and market consolidation [20][22] - There is an expectation of consolidation in the automobile market, and the company is looking for potential acquisition targets among struggling firms [21][22]