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机构每日谈 | 华泰证券:港股无需“恐高”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-09-15 08:57

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant rise since early April, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 25,000 and 26,000 points, marking a cumulative increase of over 30% and reaching a four-year high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index is no longer the same as in the past, with the weight of new economy companies in the MSCI China Index rising from under 30% to 70% over the past decade [3] - The proportion of financial and real estate sectors in the Hang Seng Index has decreased from 47.6% and 10.1% in 2016 to 32.0% and 3.8% respectively, while the new economy sectors have increased from around 20% to 58.6% [3] - The overall turnover rate of the Hong Kong stock market remains at 60%-70%, lower than that of A-shares and US stocks, but the liquidity discount faced by valuations may have significantly decreased [3] Group 2: Investor Structure - The influx of over a trillion yuan in southbound funds has altered the investor structure in the Hong Kong market, with southbound funds now accounting for nearly 40% of trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks [3] - The increase in funds benefiting from low financing costs in China is expected to elevate the valuation levels in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - The AH premium has decreased from 134 to 119 since May, currently at its lowest level in five years, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are not overvalued compared to A-shares [4] - The potential for the AH premium to narrow further exists, influenced by the trends of RMB appreciation and USD depreciation [4] - Hong Kong stocks remain attractive to overseas investors, benefiting from global liquidity and foreign capital inflow, with their valuation positioned in the mid-range compared to other global assets [5]