长城基金汪立：资金合力仍待新一轮产业催化

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a rebound attempt, but faced a pullback on Friday, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 23,264 billion [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with a relatively balanced performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks; sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture saw significant gains, while banking, oil and gas, and pharmaceuticals faced declines [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic macro data released last week indicated resilient domestic demand, although August exports showed signs of weakening compared to July, primarily due to declining U.S. import demand [2] - The core CPI in August continued to rise for four consecutive months, while PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed; however, CPI has remained below 1% for 30 months, and PPI has been negative for 35 months, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic demand [2] - The growth rate of social financing fell to around 8.8% in August, with strong fiscal support observed this year, suggesting limited room for further increases [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI met expectations, but PPI significantly underperformed, and initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [3] - The upcoming September FOMC meeting is expected to price in rate cuts, with projections indicating 2 to 3 potential cuts by the end of the year [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a mid-cycle fluctuation phase, with expectations of upward movement but increased volatility; AI-related sectors remain a focal point for investment [4] - Despite potential external shocks, if market sentiment remains strong, indices are likely to stay in an upward trend, with short-term fluctuations providing reallocation opportunities [4] - A neutral outlook suggests that if macro and policy environments remain stable, the Shanghai Composite Index may experience narrow fluctuations until late October, with potential upward movement following the 20th National Congress [5]