供应端仍是未来行情的关键变量

Policy Impact on Supply - Coal imports in the first eight months of 2025 showed a significant decline, totaling 300 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. However, the price advantage of imported coal has become apparent, leading to a notable rebound in August imports. With the expected fulfillment of long-term contracts for imported coal in the fourth quarter and the relaxation of Indonesia's HBA policy, it is anticipated that coal imports in the second half of the year will increase compared to the first half, narrowing the year-on-year decline. Overall supply remains primarily dependent on domestic production conditions [1][2][3]. Domestic Production and Policy Enforcement - The National Energy Administration has initiated a verification of coal mine production, strictly investigating behaviors that exceed announced production capacities. This measure aims to curb the "volume compensating for price" competition among coal enterprises, promoting stable and orderly coal supply. From January to August, the domestic output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. However, coal production in July was 380 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of nearly 40 million tons and a year-on-year decline of 3.8%. August production slightly recovered to 390 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. The decline in production is attributed to policy factors, military parades, and excessive rainfall in production areas, which requires ongoing observation [1][2]. Inventory and Demand Trends - Recent supply declines and reasonable demand during the peak summer season have led to a significant reduction in inventory levels at production sites and transit ports. Overall inventory has fallen to a relatively reasonable range, with northern port inventories at a historically low level and eastern port inventories decreasing by over 20% from previous highs. Despite this, coal demand remains relatively weak, influenced by uncertain weather conditions. The overall coal demand in major domestic industries has been lackluster, with electricity generation growth slowing down due to factors like a warm winter and economic restructuring. From January to August, the cumulative growth of electricity generation was only 1.5%, while thermal power generation saw a year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2][3]. Future Outlook - The supply-demand situation is expected to tighten compared to the relatively loose conditions observed in the first half of the year. However, factors such as policy and weather still require continuous monitoring. Price performance is anticipated to be volatile but biased towards strength, with the possibility of a temporary breakthrough of mid-year highs [3].