China’s soybean shift threatens US farmers — and freight jobs

Core Insights - A significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China is expected to affect various sectors beyond agriculture, including trucking, rail shipments, and port operations [1][2] - China's reduced soybean purchases are primarily due to ongoing trade tensions and high tariffs on U.S. soybeans, leading to a shift towards South American suppliers [2][3] Export Impact - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at approximately $12.8 billion, accounting for about 25% of total U.S. exports [3] - For the 2025–2026 crop year, China has not placed any new soybean orders, which poses a significant challenge as the peak harvest season approaches [3] Regional Effects - The impact of reduced exports will be particularly pronounced in major soybean-producing states such as Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana, which collectively produce around half of the U.S. soybean crop [4] - Other key soybean-producing states include Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas, with most soybeans transported by rail to the Pacific Northwest for export [4][5] Supply Chain Consequences - The loss of China as a customer could have widespread repercussions throughout the supply chain, affecting warehouse workers, rail yard crews, longshoremen, and local businesses reliant on agricultural exports [5]