Wall Street Eyes +30% Upside in Synopsys After Huge Earnings Fall

Core Insights - Synopsys experienced a significant stock decline of 36% following its earnings report on September 9, but rebounded with a 13% increase the next day, indicating market volatility and potential overreaction to the earnings miss [1][2]. Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, Synopsys reported sales of $1.74 billion, reflecting a 14% growth but falling short of the $1.77 billion estimate [4]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.43, missing Wall Street's expectations of $3.80, which represents a 1% decline [5]. Guidance and Market Reaction - The company's fiscal Q4 guidance projected an EPS of $2.78, significantly lower than the $4.50 forecasted by analysts, which contributed to the stock's decline [5]. - Despite the lowered forecasts, Wall Street analysts still see potential for recovery, with an average price target of $585.33, suggesting a 37.58% upside from the current price of $425.45 [10]. Market Position and Segments - Synopsys holds a 31% share of the electronic design automation (EDA) market, highlighting its critical role in the semiconductor industry [3]. - The Design Intellectual Property (IP) segment underperformed, with sales dropping 8% due to export restrictions in China and challenges with Intel, a key customer [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts have adjusted their price targets downward, but the average target still indicates substantial upside potential, with the lowest target at $510, implying a 16% upside [12]. - The company has de-risked its Design IP forecasts, which may lead to positive surprises in future quarters [8].