CBO Director Phill Swagel: Seeing a lot of signs that the economy is weakening

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment with slowing economic growth for the year [1] - The anticipated population growth due to immigration is expected to be significantly lower, impacting labor supply [2][4] - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down economic growth [3][6] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand is decreasing as the economy weakens, while labor supply is also falling dramatically, leading to a complex jobs market [4][6] - The population numbers are projected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next decade, with a million fewer this year alone [4][5] Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are contributing to higher inflation and are expected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $3.3 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] - The CBO follows the administration's policies closely, adjusting forecasts based on current laws and tariffs [9][18] Inflation and Economic Assumptions - Inflation has come in higher than CBO's expectations, attributed to the impact of tariffs, despite a weakening economy [20][21] - The CBO updates its forecasts a few times a year, with the latest adjustments reflecting higher inflation than previously anticipated [20][22]