Truist Wealth's Keith Lerner: Market continues to earn 'benefit of the doubt'

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing record highs, with the S&P 500 above 6,600 for the first time, and global markets also reaching all-time highs [1][3] - There is an 80% chance priced in for three rate cuts by the end of the year, which could lead to a small risk of a market setback if expectations are not met [2][10] Earnings and Sector Performance - Earnings remain the primary driver of market performance, with Oracle's recent surge attributed to strong earnings [6][7] - The technology sector continues to show strong earnings momentum, while small and mid-cap stocks are also gaining traction [8][14] International Markets - The company maintains a "team USA" stance but has increased exposure to emerging and developed international markets, particularly Japan [15][18] - Currency fluctuations are a significant factor driving international market performance, with forward earnings estimates for developed markets being negative on a 12-month basis [16] Historical Context - Historically, when the Fed cuts rates at market highs, the markets have generally moved up over the following 12 months, except during recessions [4][11] - The current market has not seen a pullback since April, and any potential pullback is expected to be contained within 4-5% [12][13]