Federal Open Market Committee Meeting in Focus

Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates for the first time in 2025, following a total reduction of 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024 [1] - A 25 basis point cut is virtually guaranteed, with a possibility of increasing to 50 basis points, which would set rates between 3.75% and 4.00% for the first time in nearly three years [3] - The labor market is weakening, with a loss of 13,000 jobs in June, while inflation is slowly rising, influenced by tariff policies [2] Political Influences on the Federal Reserve - The politicization of the Fed is complicating monetary policy decisions, with President Trump criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to reduce rates [4] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook was fired by Trump amid accusations of personal financial wrongdoing, but a federal judge reversed this decision, leading to ongoing legal disputes [4][5] - The Senate is set to vote on confirming Stephen Miran, a pro-Trump official, to the FOMC, who has previously advocated for a 300 basis point rate cut [5] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a negative reading of -8.7 for September, significantly below the expected +4.5 and a decline from August's 11.9 [7] - This negative trend is consistent with the past year, where seven out of twelve months showed negative growth in New York State manufacturing [8] - The upcoming Philly Fed survey is anticipated, which has also shown negative headlines in four of the past five months [8]