T vs TMUS: Which Telecom Stock is a Smart Investment Right Now?

Core Insights - AT&T and T-Mobile are leading players in the North American telecommunications industry, providing a wide range of services including wireless, broadband, and cloud-based solutions [1][3] - The industry is experiencing growth due to increased data traffic from high data-intensive applications, federal initiatives for digital inclusivity, and the adoption of AI technologies [2] AT&T Analysis - AT&T reported 479,000 post-paid net additions in Q2, with a postpaid churn rate of 1.02% and an increase in ARPU to $57.04, driven by improved international roaming and higher-priced plans [4] - The company is expanding its fiber broadband business, achieving 243,000 net fiber additions and 203,000 Internet Air subscribers in Q2, with a goal to reach 50 million customer locations by 2030 [5] - AT&T is acquiring wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar to enhance its 5G capabilities across 400 markets, although this comes with increased capex burden [6] T-Mobile Analysis - T-Mobile leads the 5G market with coverage for 98% of Americans, utilizing the mid-band 2.5 GHz spectrum for superior speed and coverage [7] - The company added 1.7 million postpaid net customers in Q2, with a postpaid churn rate of 0.9% and an increase in average revenue per account to $149.87 [8][9] - T-Mobile's acquisition of US Cellular's wireless operations has strengthened its home broadband offerings and fixed wireless products [9] Competitive Landscape - Both companies face intense competition in a saturated market, with T-Mobile launching low-priced plans to attract customers, which is impacting margins [11] - T-Mobile's stock is trading at a premium valuation compared to the industry, raising concerns for investors [11] - AT&T's focus on operational efficiency and fiber expansion, along with its recent performance, positions it favorably compared to T-Mobile [19] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects T-Mobile's 2025 sales growth at 6.48% and EPS growth at 9.83%, while AT&T's sales growth is estimated at 2.16% with a decline in EPS by 9.29% [12][14] - Over the past year, T-Mobile's stock has gained 17.4%, while AT&T has outperformed with a gain of 32.8% [15] Valuation Metrics - T-Mobile's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 20.50, higher than the industry average of 13.59, while AT&T trades at 13.47 [15]